AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |
Back to Blog
Nytimes election needles3/13/2024 ![]() ![]() Michael Cohen suggests Trump’s mounting legal fees make him ‘thoroughly. John Oliver offering Clarence Thomas $1M a year to resign from Supreme Court Graham’s U-turns have Senate colleagues fed up: ‘Annoying,’ ‘tiresome’ This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Republicans, meanwhile, have an 80 percent chance of retaining their majority in the Senate.Ĭopyright 2024 Nexstar Media Inc. Nate Silver’s forecast model currently gives Democrats an 83 percent chance of taking back control of the House, where they need to win back 23 seats, in the midterms. Traditionally, we have used probabilities to do so, but we increasingly doubt whether this helps readers understand the uncertainty.” “The challenge is to communicate the possibility of an upset, for as long as the possibility remains. “Ultimately, it is impossible to prevent the needle from being ‘wrong.’ It is an inevitability, if the needle is put to work in enough elections,” reads the March 13 story. The Times appeared to set low expectations for the election needle’s accuracy in a report earlier this year that cautioned there are too many factors and too much unpredictability for it to be totally reliable. The CJR report also says that the Times has partnered with Siena College to conduct live polls to allow “audiences to peer under the hood as a call bank of college students tries-and mostly fails-to reach poll respondents in real time.” The Times itself called the needle “an object of both obsession and derision during the 2016 presidential election” when it was re-introduced before the Alabama special Senate election in Dec. Republican nominee Donald Trump lost the popular vote, but won the presidency comfortably in the Electoral College. 8, 2016 that Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton had an 85 percent chance of winning the presidency. ![]() The online predictive forecast model was particularly the subject of scorn on the night of the 2016 presidential election. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman.The New York Times election needle, which has been the subject of criticism, is set to return for the November midterms, according to the Columbia Journalism Review (CJR). David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Lee, Vivian Li, Rebecca Lieberman, Ilana Marcus, Alicia Parlapiano, Jaymin Patel, Marcus Payadue, Matt Ruby, Rachel Shorey, Charlie Smart, Umi Syam, Jaime Tanner, James Thomas, Urvashi Uberoy, Ege Uz, Isaac White and Christine Zhang. The Times’s election results pages are produced by Michael Andre, Aliza Aufrichtig, Kristen Bayrakdarian, Neil Berg, Matthew Bloch, Véronique Brossier, Irineo Cabreros, Sean Catangui, Andrew Chavez, Nate Cohn, Lindsey Rogers Cook, Alastair Coote, Annie Daniel, Saurabh Datar, Avery Dews, Asmaa Elkeurti, Tiffany Fehr, Andrew Fischer, Lazaro Gamio, Martín González Gómez, Will Houp, Jon Huang, Samuel Jacoby, Jason Kao, Josh Katz, Aaron Krolik, Jasmine C. 2020 comparison maps exclude places where third-party candidates won more than 5 percent of the vote. The Associated Press also provides estimates for the share of votes reported, which are shown for races for which The Times does not publish its own estimates. These are only estimates, and they may not be informed by reports from election officials. The Times estimates the share of votes reported and the number of remaining votes, based on historic turnout data and reporting from results providers. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press.
0 Comments
Read More
Leave a Reply. |